Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.63 – 218.65

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178 ±20.2

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX -17.77Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 35.21Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7433Iona Fusion

Season APEX 116Event APEX 41.19Rank 20Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.4 ±57.1

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 203.75Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9975Off-Season Demo Team 9975

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.69Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -7.79Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7583, 6476, 7433

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7583, 6476, 7433

Auto

11.0 15%

Teleop

31.2 44%

Endgame

29.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4613, 9975, 9981

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4613, 9975, 9981

Auto

42.7 21%

Teleop

108.6 53%

Endgame

52.3 26%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score58.6pts

Blue projected score218.7pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160
Score range: 28–250
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 170.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178Season APEX294.4

11Auto42.7

31.2Teleop108.6

29Endgame52.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	50
teleop	44	198
endgame	29	97
foul	0	0
total	105	345

Result

Final score

105 – 345

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable