Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.04 – 166.74

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.2 ±19.7

5584ICRobotics

Season APEX 190.2Event APEX 98.98Rank 8Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7583Embers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 21.92Rank 27Record 0-11-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6476Supernova Star Squad

Provisional

Season APEX -3.9Event APEX 15.14Rank 14Record 5-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 67.2 ±42.4

4774The Drop Bears

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX 29.81Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 82

4739Normanhurst Nitro

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 28.57Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 108.36Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5584, 7583, 6476

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5584, 7583, 6476

Auto

17.1 13%

Teleop

79.3 60%

Endgame

36.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4774, 4739, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4774, 4739, 9986

Auto

21.8 14%

Teleop

83.8 53%

Endgame

51.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score136pts

Blue projected score166.7pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.7
Score range: 104–199
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 177.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.2Season APEX67.2

17.1Auto21.8

79.3Teleop83.8

36.1Endgame51.3

28Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	8
teleop	86	134
endgame	46	50
foul	0	15
total	145	207

Result

Final score

145 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable