Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.98 – 269.82

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.4 ±41.6

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 22.07Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4613Barker Redbacks

A+

Season APEX 294.4Event APEX 250.95Rank 1Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6510Pymble Pride

A+

Season APEX 293Event APEX 134.96Rank 4Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.3 ±42.1

5876ARTEMIS

Season APEX 25.2Event APEX 6.08Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8613Barker Greybacks

A+

Season APEX 322.1Event APEX 158.49Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 105.25Rank 2Record 9-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 4613, 6510

/ 100 compat

Projected

408 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 4613, 6510

Auto

71.2 18%

Teleop

232.6 58%

Endgame

99.0 25%

Strengths

· 4613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5876, 8613, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.8 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5876, 8613, 9986

Auto

56.4 23%

Teleop

148.2 59%

Endgame

45.5 18%

Strengths

· 8613 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score408pts

Blue projected score269.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.2
Score range: 239–439
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 172.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.4Season APEX347.3

71.2Auto56.4

232.6Teleop148.2

99Endgame45.5

16Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	56
teleop	229	172
endgame	35	76
foul	0	5
total	340	309

Result

Final score

340 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 53.6 pts