Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.72 – 77.84

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.4 ±11.2

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 16.25Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 117.33Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 31.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.4 ±11.7

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 21.07Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 33.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 23.4Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4603, 6647, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4603, 6647, 6424

Auto

24.8 15%

Teleop

103.6 63%

Endgame

35.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 8753, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 127, 8753, 2341

Auto

17.8 23%

Teleop

40.2 52%

Endgame

19.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score164.7pts

Blue projected score77.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.9
Score range: 48–195
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.4Season APEX242.4

24.8Auto17.8

103.6Teleop40.2

35.6Endgame19.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	22
teleop	52	26
endgame	24	29
foul	0	0
total	105	77

Result

Final score

105 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Match videos

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