Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.73 – 140.51

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±13.5

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 3.33Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 118Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 139.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.2 ±12.4

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 53.17Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -3.64Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 90.98Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4764, 4766, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4764, 4766, 3937

Auto

39.6 15%

Teleop

161.6 62%

Endgame

59.4 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 11102, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 11102, 16

Auto

26.3 19%

Teleop

88.1 64%

Endgame

23.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score260.7pts

Blue projected score140.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.2
Score range: 112–290
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.5Season APEX426.2

39.6Auto26.3

161.6Teleop88.1

59.4Endgame23.8

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	56
teleop	153	155
endgame	94	68
foul	0	0
total	306	279

Result

Final score

306 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 91.9 pts

Match videos

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