Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.74 – 137.39

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±12.8

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 36.83Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 8.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 50.27Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±13.6

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 39.64Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 83.97Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 13.78Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9067, 7483, 2036

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 7483, 2036

Auto

21.6 24%

Teleop

45.5 50%

Endgame

24.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3184, 5472, 7255

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 5472, 7255

Auto

27.6 20%

Teleop

72.0 53%

Endgame

36.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.7pts

Blue projected score137.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.6
Score range: 67–166
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.4Season APEX219.8

21.6Auto27.6

45.5Teleop72

24.8Endgame36

0Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	29
teleop	26	105
endgame	3	58
foul	0	0
total	60	192

Result

Final score

60 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Match videos

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