Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.42 – 74.02

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

119 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.2 ±12.4

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 54.83Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -2.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 92.73Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.4 ±11.7

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 19.37Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 32.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 22.44Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5454, 11102, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 11102, 16

Auto

21.0 15%

Teleop

94.4 66%

Endgame

27.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 8753, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 127, 8753, 2341

Auto

17.2 23%

Teleop

39.3 53%

Endgame

17.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.4pts

Blue projected score74pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.4
Score range: 44–175
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 164.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.2Season APEX242.4

21Auto17.2

94.4Teleop39.3

27.1Endgame17.4

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	24
teleop	60	41
endgame	10	31
foul	0	0
total	119	96

Result

Final score

119 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 24.2 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.