Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
257.99 – 48.75
93%7%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
267 – 70
Prediction correct · off by 15.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±11.9
Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 1.12Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 118.04Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 138.83Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.6 ±14.6
Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 30.09Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 10.59Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 8.07Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5437, 4766, 3937
79
/ 100 compatProjected
258 pts
~2.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 5437, 4766, 3937
Auto
43.5 17%
Teleop
160.3 62%
Endgame
54.7 21%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3468, 1209, 9073
27
/ 100 compatProjected
48.8 pts
~0.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 3468, 1209, 9073
Auto
20.4 45%
Teleop
15.5 34%
Endgame
9.2 20%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.61
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score258pts
Blue projected score48.8pts
Red win probability93%
Event bonus sample130alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 209.2
- Score range
- 19–288
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
476Season APEX188.6
43.5Auto20.4
160.3Teleop15.5
54.7Endgame9.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 57 | 11 |
| teleop | 137 | 33 |
| endgame | 73 | 26 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 267 | 70 |
Result
Final score
267 – 70
Prediction correct · off by 15.1 pts
Match videos
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