Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.34 – 140.95

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.4 ±11.2

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 10.51Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 111.77Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 26.06Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±13.6

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 40.91Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 15.16Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 84.88Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4603, 6647, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4603, 6647, 6424

Auto

20.2 14%

Teleop

94.7 64%

Endgame

32.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3184, 7255, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 7255, 5472

Auto

28.1 20%

Teleop

70.9 51%

Endgame

39.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score148.3pts

Blue projected score141pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.4
Score range: 111–178
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.4Season APEX219.8

20.2Auto28.1

94.7Teleop70.9

32.5Endgame39.8

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	30
teleop	118	74
endgame	44	26
foul	0	0
total	194	130

Result

Final score

194 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Match videos

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