Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

425.2 – 109.53

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

398 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.6 ±11.4

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX -0.92Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 218.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 208.04Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.4 ±12.8

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 41.71Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 13.19Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 54.63Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6186, 4499, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6186, 4499, 4522

Auto

67.4 16%

Teleop

238.7 57%

Endgame

113.4 27%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9067, 7483, 2036

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 7483, 2036

Auto

21.7 21%

Teleop

53.5 51%

Endgame

29.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score425.2pts

Blue projected score109.5pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 315.7
Score range: 81–454
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 163.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.6Season APEX366.4

67.4Auto21.7

238.7Teleop53.5

113.4Endgame29.7

34Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	26
teleop	237	9
endgame	95	4
foul	0	0
total	398	39

Result

Final score

398 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Match videos

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