Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.2 – 175.95

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±11.9

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 1.53Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 119.73Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 141.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 426.2 ±12.4

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 65.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 7.84Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 102.87Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5437, 4766, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5437, 4766, 3937

Auto

47.5 18%

Teleop

151.6 57%

Endgame

64.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 11102, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 11102, 16

Auto

31.1 19%

Teleop

97.3 60%

Endgame

33.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score263.2pts

Blue projected score176pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.3
Score range: 146–293
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 520 vs event baseline 166.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476Season APEX426.2

47.5Auto31.1

151.6Teleop97.3

64.8Endgame33.4

6Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	54
teleop	124	119
endgame	125	25
foul	5	0
total	322	198

Result

Final score

322 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Match videos

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