Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.64 – 156.47

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.2 ±12.4

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 64.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 6.76Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 101.76Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.4 ±11.2

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 13.38Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 114.5Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 28.59Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5454, 11102, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 11102, 16

Auto

30.1 18%

Teleop

99.7 60%

Endgame

35.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4603, 6647, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4603, 6647, 6424

Auto

25.3 16%

Teleop

97.0 62%

Endgame

34.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score156.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.2
Score range: 126–203
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 166.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.2Season APEX431.4

30.1Auto25.3

99.7Teleop97

35.1Endgame34

0Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	31
teleop	77	38
endgame	20	9
foul	60	0
total	195	78

Result

Final score

195 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Match videos

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