Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

405.61 – 261.9

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.6 ±11.4

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX -6.85Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 210.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 201.97Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±11.9

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 0.74Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 119.67Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 141.49Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6186, 4499, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6186, 4499, 4522

Auto

62.3 16%

Teleop

231.2 58%

Endgame

106.1 27%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5437, 4766, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5437, 4766, 3937

Auto

46.8 18%

Teleop

155.6 59%

Endgame

60.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score405.6pts

Blue projected score261.9pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.7
Score range: 232–436
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.6Season APEX476

62.3Auto46.8

231.2Teleop155.6

106.1Endgame60.6

16Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	52
teleop	240	123
endgame	48	83
foul	5	5
total	348	263

Result

Final score

348 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 29.4 pts

Match videos

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