Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.06 – 145.35

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.2 ±12.4

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 60.79Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 3.67Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 98.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±13.6

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 43.07Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 85.06Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 17.22Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5454, 11102, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 11102, 16

Auto

30.8 19%

Teleop

99.8 62%

Endgame

30.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3184, 5472, 7255

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 5472, 7255

Auto

27.0 19%

Teleop

77.9 54%

Endgame

38.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.1pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.7
Score range: 115–193
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.2Season APEX219.8

30.8Auto27

99.8Teleop77.9

30.5Endgame38.8

0Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	29
teleop	95	48
endgame	58	12
foul	45	15
total	224	104

Result

Final score

224 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Match videos

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