Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
214.98 – 311.66
23%77%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
201 – 451
Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±14.4
Season APEX 17.4Event APEX 44.08Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 182.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -11.41Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 689.4 ±10.7
Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 20.13Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 171.67Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 119.86Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6186, 4522, 7255
80
/ 100 compatProjected
215 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 6186, 4522, 7255
Auto
41.2 19%
Teleop
125.3 58%
Endgame
47.8 22%
Strengths
- · 4522 anchors offense
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2036, 4499, 6647
84
/ 100 compatProjected
311.7 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 2036, 4499, 6647
Auto
39.9 13%
Teleop
205.9 66%
Endgame
65.9 21%
Strengths
- · 4499 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.21
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score215pts
Blue projected score311.7pts
Red win probability23%
Event bonus sample130alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -96.7
- Score range
- 185–342
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
346.6Season APEX689.4
41.2Auto39.9
125.3Teleop205.9
47.8Endgame65.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 83 | 57 |
| teleop | 52 | 275 |
| endgame | 66 | 119 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 201 | 451 |
Result
Final score
201 – 451
Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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