Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.63 – 120.86

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 101.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 446 ±11.7

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 8.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 12.16Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 44.37Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.5 ±12.4

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 67.63Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 25.33Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 27.9Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3937, 3468, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3937, 3468, 5472

Auto

7.2 11%

Teleop

39.5 60%

Endgame

18.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4766, 11102, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 11102, 1209

Auto

26.2 22%

Teleop

58.3 49%

Endgame

35.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.6pts

Blue projected score120.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.2
Score range: 36–150
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 161.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

446Season APEX300.5

7.2Auto26.2

39.5Teleop58.3

18.6Endgame35.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	25
teleop	150	52
endgame	52	45
foul	0	5
total	262	127

Result

Final score

262 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 101.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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