Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.84 – 96.17

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 699.4 ±9.8

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 208.31Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 65.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 103.54Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.9 ±12.7

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 31.22Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 23.85Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 41.1Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 5454, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 5454, 16

Auto

50.8 14%

Teleop

241.8 66%

Endgame

74.1 20%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3468, 2341, 3184

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3468, 2341, 3184

Auto

10.9 12%

Teleop

56.9 60%

Endgame

26.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score377.8pts

Blue projected score96.2pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 281.7
Score range: 65–409
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

699.4Season APEX252.9

50.8Auto10.9

241.8Teleop56.9

74.1Endgame26.4

6Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	11
teleop	260	33
endgame	77	7
foul	5	0
total	402	51

Result

Final score

402 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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