Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

384.97 – 29.58

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

500 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±11.2

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 128.99Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 209.71Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 46.27Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.9 ±15.7

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 16.12Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 11.34Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 2.12Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3937, 4499, 2036

/ 100 compat

Projected

385 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3937, 4499, 2036

Auto

48.1 13%

Teleop

238.8 63%

Endgame

94.1 25%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7255, 4603, 5437

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.6 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7255, 4603, 5437

Auto

17.2 55%

Teleop

0.8 3%

Endgame

13.3 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score385pts

Blue projected score29.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 355.4
Score range: 1–414
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 162.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686Season APEX90.9

48.1Auto17.2

238.8Teleop0.8

94.1Endgame13.3

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	10
teleop	333	12
endgame	98	8
foul	0	0
total	500	30

Result

Final score

500 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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