Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.25 – 108.53

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.2 ±12.4

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 35.47Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -7.53Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 203.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.1 ±14.4

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 83.67Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 22Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 2.86Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3184, 11102, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 11102, 4522

Auto

32.7 14%

Teleop

122.3 54%

Endgame

71.5 32%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5472, 2341, 4764

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5472, 2341, 4764

Auto

27.5 24%

Teleop

70.0 62%

Endgame

14.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.3pts

Blue projected score108.5pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.7
Score range: 80–260
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 161.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.2Season APEX207.1

32.7Auto27.5

122.3Teleop70

71.5Endgame14.8

48Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	19
teleop	174	83
endgame	77	31
foul	5	0
total	308	133

Result

Final score

308 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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