Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.96 – 249.86

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.2 ±13

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX 3.17Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 113.95Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 11.84Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.9 ±12.7

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 47.27Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 199.72Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 2.87Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6186, 4766, 4603

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6186, 4766, 4603

Auto

37.3 29%

Teleop

58.4 45%

Endgame

34.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 4522, 9073

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 4522, 9073

Auto

49.2 20%

Teleop

144.1 58%

Endgame

54.9 22%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129pts

Blue projected score249.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.9
Score range: 100–279
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.2Season APEX548.9

37.3Auto49.2

58.4Teleop144.1

34.1Endgame54.9

9Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	41
teleop	49	141
endgame	56	96
foul	0	15
total	130	293

Result

Final score

130 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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