Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.29 – 118.95

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

61 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.7 ±15.1

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -0.67Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 9.07Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 120.89Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.6 ±11.7

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 23.44Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 10.15Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 85.36Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11102, 4764, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11102, 4764, 6647

Auto

16.6 13%

Teleop

84.0 64%

Endgame

30.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6424, 7483, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6424, 7483, 16

Auto

15.5 14%

Teleop

73.4 65%

Endgame

23.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.3pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.3
Score range: 90–158
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 160.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.7Season APEX366.6

16.6Auto15.5

84Teleop73.4

30.2Endgame23.5

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	34	123
endgame	6	39
foul	0	0
total	61	182

Result

Final score

61 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 65.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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