Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.28 – 113.44

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.5 ±13.2

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 17.55Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 16.84Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 0.89Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.9 ±13.5

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 53.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 52.5Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX 7.7Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2341, 127, 9073

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 127, 9073

Auto

11.4 32%

Teleop

31.1 86%

Endgame

-6.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 2036, 6186

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 2036, 6186

Auto

26.5 23%

Teleop

51.3 45%

Endgame

35.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.3pts

Blue projected score113.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.2
Score range: 6–142
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.5Season APEX337.9

11.4Auto26.5

31.1Teleop51.3

-6.4Endgame35.3

0Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	35	53
endgame	35	27
foul	0	0
total	84	97

Result

Final score

84 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 32.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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