Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

372.92 – 26.16

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 672.4 ±9.8

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 206.66Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 31.81Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 134.45Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.5 ±15.8

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 8.16Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 6.41Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 11.59Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4522, 6424, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.9 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4522, 6424, 3937

Auto

70.8 19%

Teleop

208.9 57%

Endgame

88.7 24%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7483, 4764, 4603

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7483, 4764, 4603

Auto

7.4 34%

Teleop

10.7 49%

Endgame

3.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score372.9pts

Blue projected score26.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 346.8
Score range: -3–402
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 158.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

672.4Season APEX173.5

70.8Auto7.4

208.9Teleop10.7

88.7Endgame3.7

64Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	22
teleop	221	16
endgame	101	14
foul	0	0
total	325	52

Result

Final score

325 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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