Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.37 – 124.65

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.6 ±16.3

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 48.45Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 5.53Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 8.39Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198.2 ±14.1

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 8.93Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 33.29Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 82.43Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2036, 4764, 11102

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2036, 4764, 11102

Auto

13.0 21%

Teleop

27.6 46%

Endgame

20.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9073, 8753, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9073, 8753, 5472

Auto

37.3 30%

Teleop

61.5 49%

Endgame

25.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.4pts

Blue projected score124.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.3
Score range: 31–156
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.6Season APEX198.2

13Auto37.3

27.6Teleop61.5

20Endgame25.8

2Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	32
teleop	24	47
endgame	25	19
foul	0	0
total	58	98

Result

Final score

58 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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