Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.21 – 57.79

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474 ±10.5

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 17.52Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 115.21Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 87.48Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.5 ±14.7

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 67.61Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -2.93Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -6.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2341, 4766, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 4766, 16

Auto

31.8 14%

Teleop

138.7 63%

Endgame

49.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5472, 7255, 11102

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5472, 7255, 11102

Auto

30.9 54%

Teleop

22.8 40%

Endgame

3.4 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score220.2pts

Blue projected score57.8pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 162.4
Score range: 29–249
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 159.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474Season APEX146.5

31.8Auto30.9

138.7Teleop22.8

49.7Endgame3.4

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	177	52
endgame	24	54
foul	0	0
total	225	128

Result

Final score

225 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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