Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.2 – 248.17

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.8 ±14.5

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 213.98Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 59.95Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 15.27Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 567 ±10.5

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 51.87Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 3.07Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 193.23Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4522, 2036, 4764

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4522, 2036, 4764

Auto

51.2 18%

Teleop

161.4 56%

Endgame

76.3 26%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5454, 1209, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5454, 1209, 4499

Auto

41.3 17%

Teleop

156.4 63%

Endgame

49.3 20%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score289.2pts

Blue projected score248.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41
Score range: 220–317
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 524 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.8Season APEX567

51.2Auto41.3

161.4Teleop156.4

76.3Endgame49.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	31
teleop	119	203
endgame	80	55
foul	5	15
total	220	304

Result

Final score

220 – 304

Prediction missed · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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