Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.11 – 156.22

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.1 ±14.1

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 42.39Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 12.38Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -4.66Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.3 ±11.2

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 23.82Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 97.05Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 35.35Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9067, 5437, 11102

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 5437, 11102

Auto

12.8 25%

Teleop

20.6 40%

Endgame

17.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 16, 8753

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 127, 16, 8753

Auto

18.7 12%

Teleop

92.8 61%

Endgame

41.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score156.2pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.1
Score range: 22–184
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 157.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.1Season APEX372.3

12.8Auto18.7

20.6Teleop92.8

17.8Endgame41.8

32Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	16
teleop	13	48
endgame	12	25
foul	0	0
total	40	89

Result

Final score

40 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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