Qualification · Qualification 34
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
2.49 – 163.04
12%88%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
44 – 162
Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.1 ±13.9
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX -3.66Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 17.4Event APEX 3.48Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 2.67Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.2 ±13.5
Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 12.48Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 117.68Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 32.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1209, 6186, 7483
1
/ 100 compatProjected
2.5 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 1209, 6186, 7483
Auto
20.3 0%
Teleop
-27.5 100%
Endgame
4.1 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4764, 4766, 6424
63
/ 100 compatProjected
163 pts
~2.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 4764, 4766, 6424
Auto
29.7 18%
Teleop
91.0 56%
Endgame
41.4 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.34
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score2.5pts
Blue projected score163pts
Red win probability12%
Event bonus sample130alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -160.5
- Score range
- -27–192
- Upset likelihood
- 12%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
153.1Season APEX343.2
20.3Auto29.7
-27.5Teleop91
4.1Endgame41.4
8Consistency14
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 29 |
| teleop | 18 | 99 |
| endgame | 8 | 34 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 44 | 162 |
Result
Final score
44 – 162
Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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