Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

485.57 – 107.55

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 712.4 ±9.9

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 35.31Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 234.03Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 216.23Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±14.1

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 11.63Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 1.24Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 94.68Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3184, 4522, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

485.6 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 4522, 4499

Auto

81.7 17%

Teleop

277.3 58%

Endgame

120.6 25%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5437, 11102, 16

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5437, 11102, 16

Auto

7.3 7%

Teleop

75.0 70%

Endgame

24.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score485.6pts

Blue projected score107.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 378
Score range: 79–515
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

712.4Season APEX232.9

81.7Auto7.3

277.3Teleop75

120.6Endgame24.3

20Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	10
teleop	213	52
endgame	84	24
foul	0	0
total	322	86

Result

Final score

322 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 92.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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