Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.11 – 194.74

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.4 ±11.2

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 121.21Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 33.81Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 4.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.6 ±13.7

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX -8.27Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 3.28Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 199.73Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4766, 9067, 7483

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 9067, 7483

Auto

38.7 25%

Teleop

78.4 50%

Endgame

38.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6186, 5437, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6186, 5437, 4522

Auto

41.6 22%

Teleop

93.1 48%

Endgame

58.4 30%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.1pts

Blue projected score194.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.6
Score range: 128–226
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.4Season APEX333.6

38.7Auto41.6

78.4Teleop93.1

38.6Endgame58.4

7Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	55
teleop	70	136
endgame	49	68
foul	0	0
total	168	259

Result

Final score

168 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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