Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.6 – 355.52

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 140.4 ±16.9

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 16.09Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 33.02Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -13.51Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±10.5

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 101.82Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 9.87Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 243.83Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4764, 3468, 7255

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4764, 3468, 7255

Auto

16.8 42%

Teleop

9.8 25%

Endgame

13.1 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 16, 1209, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 16, 1209, 4522

Auto

56.1 16%

Teleop

196.4 56%

Endgame

95.6 27%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score35.6pts

Blue projected score355.5pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -319.9
Score range: 8–384
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 156.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

140.4Season APEX575.5

16.8Auto56.1

9.8Teleop196.4

13.1Endgame95.6

1Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	70
teleop	5	178
endgame	5	54
foul	0	0
total	17	302

Result

Final score

17 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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