Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.09 – 132.63

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.7 ±12.2

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 15.3Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 30.43Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 22.36Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.9 ±13.5

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 124.62Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 13.01Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -5Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8753, 5454, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8753, 5454, 2341

Auto

23.6 35%

Teleop

40.6 60%

Endgame

3.8 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3937, 7483, 11102

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3937, 7483, 11102

Auto

27.6 22%

Teleop

74.0 58%

Endgame

25.4 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.1pts

Blue projected score132.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.5
Score range: 40–161
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 157.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.7Season APEX360.9

23.6Auto27.6

40.6Teleop74

3.8Endgame25.4

7Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	41
teleop	81	86
endgame	6	10
foul	0	20
total	107	157

Result

Final score

107 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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