Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.27 – 89.14

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293 ±12.4

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 38.24Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 64.83Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX -19.8Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.9 ±12.4

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 4.9Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 20.65Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 63.59Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9067, 5472, 6186

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 5472, 6186

Auto

39.0 45%

Teleop

13.1 15%

Endgame

33.9 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4603, 127, 2036

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4603, 127, 2036

Auto

7.6 9%

Teleop

55.6 63%

Endgame

25.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.3pts

Blue projected score89.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.9
Score range: 54–118
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 159.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293Season APEX300.9

39Auto7.6

13.1Teleop55.6

33.9Endgame25.6

10Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	21
teleop	84	45
endgame	24	44
foul	0	5
total	132	115

Result

Final score

132 – 115

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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