Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.36 – 155.49

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.7 ±11.9

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 217.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 29.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 8.45Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±13.2

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 109.1Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 43.05Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX 3.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4499, 6424, 5437

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 6424, 5437

Auto

39.9 16%

Teleop

158.5 62%

Endgame

57.1 22%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4766, 3184, 9073

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 3184, 9073

Auto

26.1 17%

Teleop

88.3 58%

Endgame

38.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score255.4pts

Blue projected score155.5pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.9
Score range: 127–283
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 362 vs event baseline 158.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.7Season APEX346.7

39.9Auto26.1

158.5Teleop88.3

57.1Endgame38.8

51Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	18
teleop	145	53
endgame	60	36
foul	5	5
total	250	112

Result

Final score

250 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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