Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.69 – 179.41

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.6 ±12.4

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 254.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 22.84Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 18.1Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.9 ±11.7

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 28.88Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 122.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 28.48Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4522, 8753, 7483

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4522, 8753, 7483

Auto

57.8 20%

Teleop

169.7 58%

Endgame

64.5 22%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3468, 3937, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3468, 3937, 5454

Auto

36.9 20%

Teleop

112.7 62%

Endgame

31.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score295.7pts

Blue projected score179.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.3
Score range: 151–324
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.6Season APEX545.9

57.8Auto36.9

169.7Teleop112.7

64.5Endgame31.2

42Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	51
teleop	98	100
endgame	70	52
foul	15	5
total	249	208

Result

Final score

249 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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