Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.43 – 226.05

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.8 ±12.9

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 48.13Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 37.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 16.11Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.5 ±11.7

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 58.98Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 101.34Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 65.73Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3184, 6424, 5437

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 6424, 5437

Auto

10.4 11%

Teleop

60.9 62%

Endgame

27.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2036, 16, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2036, 16, 5472

Auto

33.6 15%

Teleop

131.8 59%

Endgame

57.0 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score101.4pts

Blue projected score226.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.6
Score range: 72–255
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 160.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.8Season APEX419.5

10.4Auto33.6

60.9Teleop131.8

27.3Endgame57

67Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	37
teleop	16	140
endgame	24	68
foul	0	0
total	50	245

Result

Final score

50 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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