Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.84 – 216.86

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.3 ±12.2

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -18.61Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 12.34Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 105.11Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.1 ±15.7

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -7.24Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 10.87Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 213.23Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7255, 127, 4766

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7255, 127, 4766

Auto

29.3 29%

Teleop

40.9 41%

Endgame

29.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9073, 4764, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9073, 4764, 4499

Auto

40.4 19%

Teleop

137.4 64%

Endgame

38.3 18%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.8pts

Blue projected score216.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118
Score range: 71–245
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 157.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.3Season APEX379.1

29.3Auto40.4

40.9Teleop137.4

29.6Endgame38.3

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	41
teleop	76	196
endgame	33	56
foul	5	0
total	132	293

Result

Final score

132 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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