Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.41 – 284.86

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.5 ±13.3

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 20.83Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 1.86Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 28.72Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.2 ±10.5

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 22.69Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 239.91Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 22.26Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1209, 4603, 8753

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 4603, 8753

Auto

5.7 12%

Teleop

24.9 50%

Endgame

18.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2341, 4522, 9067

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.9 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2341, 4522, 9067

Auto

64.3 23%

Teleop

155.0 54%

Endgame

66.2 23%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.4pts

Blue projected score284.9pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -233.4
Score range: 23–313
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 155.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.5Season APEX555.2

5.7Auto64.3

24.9Teleop155

18.8Endgame66.2

97Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	50
teleop	13	217
endgame	7	90
foul	0	5
total	35	362

Result

Final score

35 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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