Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.81 – 241.9

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

269 – 281

Prediction missed · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 729.9 ±9.8

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 110.92Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 103.54Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 143.35Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.8 ±11.7

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 208.31Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 9.74Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 23.85Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6647, 16, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6647, 16, 3937

Auto

49.4 14%

Teleop

227.2 64%

Endgame

77.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4499, 4603, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 4603, 2341

Auto

36.6 15%

Teleop

154.9 64%

Endgame

49.6 21%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score357.8pts

Blue projected score241.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.9
Score range: 211–389
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 550 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

729.9Season APEX435.8

49.4Auto36.6

227.2Teleop154.9

77.1Endgame49.6

19Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	45
teleop	182	178
endgame	73	58
foul	0	0
total	269	281

Result

Final score

269 – 281

Prediction missed · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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