Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.58 – 188.79

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 64.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.4 ±14.4

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -7.43Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -12.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 208.59Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 450.5 ±10.7

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 34.67Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 26.55Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 127.57Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9073, 11102, 4499

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.6 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9073, 11102, 4499

Auto

34.5 19%

Teleop

101.1 54%

Endgame

50.0 27%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7483, 127, 6647

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7483, 127, 6647

Auto

15.9 8%

Teleop

124.1 66%

Endgame

49.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score188.6pts

Blue projected score188.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.2
Score range: 160–218
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 160.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.4Season APEX450.5

34.5Auto15.9

101.1Teleop124.1

50Endgame49

119Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	13
teleop	108	53
endgame	20	2
foul	0	5
total	175	73

Result

Final score

175 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 64.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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