Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.59 – 63.06

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.9 ±15.4

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX -16.41Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 89.09Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 18.91Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459 ±13.1

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX -4.52Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -28.45Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 96.03Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6186, 16, 4764

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6186, 16, 4764

Auto

13.6 16%

Teleop

39.0 45%

Endgame

35.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9067, 7255, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9067, 7255, 3937

Auto

26.7 41%

Teleop

22.1 34%

Endgame

15.6 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.6pts

Blue projected score63.1pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.5
Score range: 34–121
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 161.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.9Season APEX459

13.6Auto26.7

39Teleop22.1

35Endgame15.6

17Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	38
teleop	54	93
endgame	35	45
foul	0	0
total	103	176

Result

Final score

103 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 62.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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