Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

26.64 – 24.29

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112 ±15.2

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 15.58Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -9.69Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 20.75Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.4 ±12.9

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -26.96Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 14.35Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 36.9Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1209, 9073, 5437

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 9073, 5437

Auto

6.5 28%

Teleop

14.2 60%

Endgame

2.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11102, 2341, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11102, 2341, 6424

Auto

3.9 17%

Teleop

20.8 92%

Endgame

-2.2 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score26.6pts

Blue projected score24.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.4
Score range: -5–56
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112Season APEX195.4

6.5Auto3.9

14.2Teleop20.8

2.8Endgame-2.2

106Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	13
teleop	21	28
endgame	3	14
foul	0	0
total	39	55

Result

Final score

39 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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