Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.49 – 311.69

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 110.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.1 ±11.7

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 102.1Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 26.81Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 78.58Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.6 ±11.4

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 231.08Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX 21.05Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 59.56Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 16, 4603, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 16, 4603, 5472

Auto

28.7 14%

Teleop

124.7 63%

Endgame

46.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4499, 6186, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.7 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4499, 6186, 127

Auto

72.3 23%

Teleop

156.3 50%

Endgame

83.8 27%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score207.5pts

Blue projected score311.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.2
Score range: 178–341
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 163.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

364.1Season APEX432.6

28.7Auto72.3

124.7Teleop156.3

46Endgame83.8

12Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	78	83
endgame	35	56
foul	0	0
total	140	159

Result

Final score

140 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 110.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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