Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.51 – 168.36

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.5 ±10.5

6647PrepaTec - VOLTEC

Season APEX 267.2Event APEX 123.05Rank 11Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 27.52Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 9.94Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±13.5

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 109.11Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 76.37Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4764The Memphis MechWarriors

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -17.12Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6647, 3184, 9067

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6647, 3184, 9067

Auto

10.1 6%

Teleop

95.7 60%

Endgame

52.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4766, 3937, 4764

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 3937, 4764

Auto

45.3 27%

Teleop

82.0 49%

Endgame

41.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score160.5pts

Blue projected score168.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.9
Score range: 132–197
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 158.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.5Season APEX508.5

10.1Auto45.3

95.7Teleop82

52.6Endgame41.6

21Consistency212

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	32
teleop	98	187
endgame	69	54
foul	0	0
total	185	273

Result

Final score

185 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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