Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.86 – 29.51

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

35 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.5 ±13.5

11102Real Steel

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 9.18Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 48.42Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 21.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.6 ±16.2

9073Skol Robotics

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -12.4Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2036Boulder Valley Black Knights

Season APEX 121.1Event APEX 66.97Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX -25.06Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11102, 7483, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11102, 7483, 5454

Auto

11.5 15%

Teleop

39.1 51%

Endgame

25.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9073, 2036, 7255

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.5 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9073, 2036, 7255

Auto

24.2 80%

Teleop

-10.0 0%

Endgame

16.1 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score29.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 49.3
Score range: -1–110
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 54 vs event baseline 169.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.5Season APEX179.6

11.5Auto24.2

39.1Teleop-10

25.8Endgame16.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	17
teleop	21	2
endgame	2	0
foul	0	0
total	35	19

Result

Final score

35 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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