Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.22 – 132.9

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 42.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 240.5 ±12.8

3468MAGNAtech Rebels

Season APEX 82.7Event APEX 44.94Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8753Spectre

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 22.99Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 30.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.9 ±12.9

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 90.41Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX 32.89Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 9.6Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3468, 8753, 6424

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3468, 8753, 6424

Auto

21.9 23%

Teleop

63.5 67%

Endgame

9.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5472, 6186, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5472, 6186, 2341

Auto

43.4 32%

Teleop

53.5 39%

Endgame

39.0 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.2pts

Blue projected score132.9pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.7
Score range: 66–165
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 175.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

240.5Season APEX185.9

21.9Auto43.4

63.5Teleop53.5

9.9Endgame39

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	34
teleop	64	29
endgame	36	13
foul	0	0
total	126	76

Result

Final score

126 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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