Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
131.37 – 109.19
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
46 – 251
Prediction missed · off by 113.6 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.2 ±14
Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -0.67Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 41.74Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 90.3Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±11.9
Season APEX 6.1Event APEX -0.72Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83
Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 62.9Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 47.01Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4764, 1209, 127
52
/ 100 compatProjected
131.4 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4764, 1209, 127
Auto
13.8 11%
Teleop
89.4 69%
Endgame
25.8 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5437, 4766, 3937
53
/ 100 compatProjected
109.2 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 5437, 4766, 3937
Auto
20.9 19%
Teleop
55.4 49%
Endgame
36.6 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.41
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score131.4pts
Blue projected score109.2pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample130alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 22.2
- Score range
- 77–163
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
219.2Season APEX476
13.8Auto20.9
89.4Teleop55.4
25.8Endgame36.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 47 |
| teleop | 17 | 156 |
| endgame | 17 | 48 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 46 | 251 |
Result
Final score
46 – 251
Prediction missed · off by 113.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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