Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.83 – 53.99

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 144.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 441.2 ±11.7

4603Forza One - Peñoles

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 29.28Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9067The Goonies

Season APEX 176.1Event APEX 45.99Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 70.56Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.3 ±12.2

16Bomb Squad

Season APEX 198.9Event APEX 74.46Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7483Mechanically Challenged

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 23.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX -43.61Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4603, 9067, 5454

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.8 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4603, 9067, 5454

Auto

37.3 26%

Teleop

70.7 49%

Endgame

36.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 16, 7483, 3184

/ 100 compat

Projected

54 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 16, 7483, 3184

Auto

2.8 5%

Teleop

34.6 65%

Endgame

16.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.8pts

Blue projected score54pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.8
Score range: 21–179
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 183.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

441.2Season APEX369.3

37.3Auto2.8

70.7Teleop34.6

36Endgame16.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	14	148
endgame	12	59
foul	0	15
total	37	235

Result

Final score

37 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 144.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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