Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.27 – 51.58

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.7 ±10.5

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 41.1Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5454Obsidian

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 65.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 22.18Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±13.6

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 25.15Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7255Mechanical Mettle

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 15.3Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 80

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 11.13Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3184, 5454, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 5454, 127

Auto

15.0 12%

Teleop

73.9 60%

Endgame

33.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6424, 7255, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6424, 7255, 1209

Auto

11.6 24%

Teleop

25.4 52%

Endgame

12.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score129.3pts

Blue projected score51.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.7
Score range: 21–160
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 172.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.7Season APEX184.1

15Auto11.6

73.9Teleop25.4

33.8Endgame12.1

6Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	5
teleop	52	19
endgame	31	4
foul	0	5
total	97	33

Result

Final score

97 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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