Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

382.3 – 264.34

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

550 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 104.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.6 ±11.4

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX -13.73Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 201.91Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 194.12Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±11.9

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 2.17Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 119.67Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 142.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6186, 4499, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.3 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6186, 4499, 4522

Auto

58.6 16%

Teleop

224.7 60%

Endgame

92.6 25%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5437, 4766, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5437, 4766, 3937

Auto

48.5 18%

Teleop

142.3 54%

Endgame

73.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score382.3pts

Blue projected score264.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118
Score range: 234–412
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 856 vs event baseline 168.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.6Season APEX476

58.6Auto48.5

224.7Teleop142.3

92.6Endgame73.5

21Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	68
teleop	330	131
endgame	117	107
foul	0	0
total	550	306

Result

Final score

550 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 104.7 pts

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